Rx drug market recovers after flu season

Outpatient Rx size in the first quarter decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, rising in March

Winter sluggish due to a sharp decline in the number of patients including flu in the aftermath of COVID-19

After the end of the flu season, the growth rate of the previous year has recovered

The outpatient prescription drug market, which was slow in winter, is showing a recovery trend.

 

Since the end of last year, the total prescription drug volume has been on a decline compared to the previous year, but in March it turned to an upward trend.

 

It is analyzed that COVID-19 showed sluggishness due to a sharp decline in infectious disease patients due to the prolonged aftermath of the prolonged aftermath, but rebounded at the end of the flu season.

 

According to the drug research institute UBIST on the 18th, the total outpatient prescription amount in the first quarter of the year was ₩3.5697 trillion, down 3.6% from the same period last year.

 

Compared to the first quarter of 2019, it also decreased by 0.9%.

 

The prescription size has increased every year, but this year has decreased.

 

The prescription size in the first quarter of last year was ₩3.701 trillion, an increase of 2.7% from the previous year.

 

In the first quarter of 2018 and 2019, prescriptions rose 8.9% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to the previous year.

 

This is the aftermath of the sluggish prescriptions in January and February.

 

The prescription size in January was ₩1,166.6 billion, down 7.0% from the previous year, and 5.6% in February compared to the same period last year.

 

Monthly outpatient prescription amount trend (Unit: ₩100 million, Source: UBIST)

However, the prescription performance in March was ₩1.253.7 trillion, up 1.9% from the previous year.

 

Since December of last year, the total prescription drug volume has declined compared to the previous year for three consecutive months, and then turned to an upward trend in April.

 

The sluggish prescription market in January and February was largely attributed to the prolonged COVID-19.

 

Since the spread of COVID-19, it is highly likely that the incidence of infectious diseases has greatly decreased due to reinforced personal hygiene management such as hand washing and wearing a mask, leading to a decrease in visits to medical institutions.

 

Since the end of last year, no flu pandemic warning has been issued this winter.

 

According to the KCDA, the number of suspected flu patients per 1,000 outpatients during the 1st to 8th week of this year is 2.4, 2.4, 2.6, 2.3, 1.9, 1,9, 1.9, 2.0, etc.

 

Compared to 49.1, 47.8, 42.4, 40.9, 28.0, 16.4, 11.6, and 8.5 outpatients per 1,000 outpatients during the 1st to 8th week of last year, there have been few recent flu cases.

 

Since the end of last year, it is possible that visits to medical institutions have further decreased as the social distancing stage has been elevated due to the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 confirmed patients.

 

As more than 300 confirmed cases occurred from November 18 last year, the government raised the social distancing from November 24 to the second stage from the previous 1.5 stage.

 

From then on, only packaging and delivery were allowed for cafes regardless of business hours, and only packaging and delivery were allowed after 9 pm for restaurants.

 

Nevertheless, as the number of COVID-19 confirmed rapidly increased, the government raised the social distance in the metropolitan area to 2.5 steps from December 8 last year.

 

Accordingly, in the metropolitan area, the operation of singing practice centers and indoor sports facilities in addition to the existing five types of entertainment facilities such as entertainment bars was additionally suspended.

 

Shops, marts, department stores, movie theaters, PC cafes, and other facilities that are closely related to life must also close after 9 pm.

 

Despite the rise in social distancing, the number of COVID-19 confirmed exceeding 1,000 and hitting a daily high, the Seoul Metropolitan Government implemented a super-precipitation measure that banned ``private gatherings with more than 5 people'' from December 23 last year, and such measures have been taken across the country since.

 

Was applied to spread.

 

Since last February, the social distancing step in the metropolitan area has been eased to two stages, but strengthened distancing measures are being implemented, such as “private gatherings for more than 5 people” are still banned.

 

However, as the flu season ended in March, it is analyzed that the growth rate of the previous year has recovered.

 

The number of suspected flu patients per 1,000 outpatients during the 9th to 13th week of this year was 1-2, similar to that of January and February.

 

There is no significant difference from the 9th to 13th week of last year.

 

Last year, it recorded 6.3 in the 9th week, but as the flu season ended, it decreased to 3.9 in the 10th week, 2.9 in the 11th week, 3.2 in the 12th week, and 2.8 in the 13th week.

 

The industry diagnoses that the prolonged COVID-19 will inevitably hurt the prescription market for drugs used by flu or cold patients.

 

However, as the use of medicines continues to increase due to the increase in the elderly population and the number of chronic diseases, the overall prescription market is expected to show an increase at the level of previous years.

 

Although social distancing is still in place, it is observed that unlike the tourism and cultural industries that fell into extreme crises after COVID-19 outbreak, the pharmaceutical industry is affected by the demands of patients rather than the external environment, so it is difficult to lead to a sudden downturn.