Attention focused on children’s NIP flu vaccine supply

following completion of bids for senior NIP flu vaccines

The pediatric flu vaccine supply will impact private supply… overheated competition expected in the market

5 million doses expected at most… Sanofi will participate and GSK will not participate

With the bid for the 8 million doses of influenza vaccine for seniors under the National Immunization Program nearly compete, the pharmaceutical industry is intently focused on the supply amount and bid that will be set for the children’s NIP flu vaccines that will follow.

 

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the industry, the expected NIP quantity of influenza vaccines for those aged 6 months to 12 years will be around 4.6 million doses and will be supplied under a third-party Unit Price Contract.

 

The reason why the pharmaceutical companies are paying attention to the NIP influenza vaccine (hereinafter referred to as flu vaccines) supply for children and adolescents is because the bid amount could affect the number of vaccines that will be released to the private sector in the future.

 

Last year, due to concerns over a ‘Twindemic,’ where COVID-19 and influenza spread simultaneously, the subjects for NIP flu vaccines were temporarily expanded to include those in the 13 to 18-year range, increasing the supply by 1.54 million people’s worth.

 

From this year's perspective, this means that if the flu vaccines for adolescents are removed from the NIP supply this year, that amount will now return to the private sector.

 

Generally, the third-party unit price contract for children’s flu vaccines under the NIP are made without a procurement contract.

 

When the pharmaceutical company supplies flu vaccines to vaccinating medical institutions, the institutions vaccinate eligible children and receive expenses for the vaccination and execution from their local public health centers.

 

The pharmaceutical companies also receive the price for the vaccine from public health centers.

 

When the pharmaceutical company supplies flu vaccines to vaccinating medical institutions, the institutions vaccinate eligible children and then receive expenses for the vaccine and its administration from their local public health centers.

 

The pharmaceutical companies also receive the price for the vaccine from the public health centers.

 

Currently, around 5.2 million children and adolescents are eligible to receive the NIP flu vaccine based on the resident registration statistics in May.

 

The NIP inoculation rate is expected to be around 80% of the eligible population, which means that NIP will roughly require 4.2 million doses.

 

Adding the 500,000 that need to be inoculated twice to the supply, the total amount required will be around 4.7 million doses.

 

Most domestic companies will take part in the bid as NIP suppliers for the pediatric flu vaccines, and Sanofi, which is known to have ramped up its flu vaccine volume by nearly 30% in the absence of SK Bioscience, is also expected to participate in the bid.

 

The pharmaceutical industry expects the total vaccine supply, including the NIP amount, will be around 26 million doses this year.

 

Taking into account the various factors, some believe that the competition among pharmaceutical companies will intensify as the number of flu vaccines released into the private market will be much greater than expected compared to the previous year.

 

However, there also lies the possibility that these expectations will be reversed, as the eligibility age for NIP may continue to be expanded this year in line with the probable approval of the supplementary budget.

 

Analysts predict that supplementary budget requests this year will not be rejected as the Ministry of Economy and Finance had underestimated last year's tax revenue by around 32 trillion won and will be reflecting this amount in the budget.

 

At least, the NIP vaccine age expansion plan will unlikely be rejected due to the lack of a budget.

 

In addition, NA member Jong Sung Lee of the People Power Party had pointed out that NIP for adolescents was virtually nonexistent except for the supplementary budget bill approved in 2020 to inoculate adolescents aged 14 – 18 years old.

 

This pressure from the NA may also be positively reflected in the supplementary budget request.

 

An official from a domestic pharmaceutical company said, “The total NIP amount will be determined according to whether the NIP age range will be expanded or not.

 

The rest will be distributed in the private market.

 

It’s not about whether we agree or disagree to the age expansion plan – the nay or yay needs to be sorted out as soon as possible so we can plan measures accordingly.” Also, the pharmaceutical industry believes that COVID-19 vaccination will be an important variable in establishing a competitive strategy for the flu vaccine market.

 

“This year’s flu vaccine market size may be determined by the COVID-19 vaccination rate this year," a Sanofi official said.

 

"The government will need to provide guidelines for inoculations as the COVID-19 vaccination completion period coincides with the flu vaccination period that was announced by the government."