New flu season to spark up another round of competition

Tamiflu’s adverse reaction risk brings sales down last season, expected to get worse

Hanmi Flu and generics show noticeable growth, Peramiflu joins the competition

KCDC public service announcement about preventing influenza by getting flu shot, properly washing hands, covering mouth when coughing and visiting healthcare institute when feeling unwell

The flu season in Korea has just arrived for the year.

 

Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) issued a flu warning on November 15.

 

The season is to last until May next year.

 

The new flu season is to start up even more fierce competition in the flu treatment market.

 

The market leader, Tamiflu (oseltamivir) sales has been tumbling down since oseltamivir generics were launched.

 

What’s worse, the flu treatment’s adverse reaction risk reported last season had its market position precarious.

 

Now the gap between Tamiflu and the runner-up Hanmi Flu is in arm’s length.

 

Prescription volumes of generics, on the other hand, are neck-and-neck, while the original’s performance is stagnating.

 

Moreover, intravenously administered Permiflu jumped in to the already-heated competition strong with convenience of single-dosage.

 

Now with the new flu season just penning, let us round up the highlights of the flu treatment market.

 

◆Tamiflu adverse reaction risk from last year, so what’s next this year?

 

Last winter, Tamiflu was struck down with a concerning issue.

 

In December last year, a middle school student fell from an apartment and was found dead in Busan, after taking Tamiflu.

 

The student’s family suspected adverse reaction as she complained of hallucination after taking Tamiflu.

 

And the media highlighted sporadic reporting of suicidal reaction from Tamiflu in Japan.

 

The risk did not subside easily.

 

As a result, the original and oseltamivir generics together generated prescription volume of 24.7 billion won in last flu season from November 2018 to May 2019.

 

Compared to the 2017-2018 season generating 31.1 billion won, the last season’s sales dropped more than 20 percent.

 

Besides, it was a big loss for the drugs considering the flu season struck hard last year.

 

According to Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA), 4.74 million patients visited hospitals for flu in the 2018-2019 season.

 

The figure was at four-year high and it was 5.5 times more than 860,000 patients in the 2014-2015 season and 2.1 times more than 2.29 million patients in the 2017-2018 season.

 

Tamiflu and generic prescription volume (source: UBIST) and flu patient size from last five season (source: HIRA)

While the overall oseltamivir products had a drop in prescription volume, the original Tamiflu took the biggest blow.

 

Its prescription volume plunged from 12.2 billion won to 7.7 billion won in a year.

 

Hanmi Flu generating the second highest sales narrowed the gap with Tamiflu from 3.8 billion won to 1.7 billion won in the same period.

 

The industry predicts the generic could actually surpass the original this season according to the trend.

 

Top two market leaders Tamiflu and Hanmi Flu’s prescription volume in last five seasons (Unit: KRW 100 million) Source: UBIST

◆Peramiflu almost triples market share As a result of Tamiflu’s adverse reaction risk, GC Pharmaceutical’s Peramiflu (peramivir) took the opportunity.

 

Compared to the previous season, the peramivir medicine’s market share more than doubled last season.

 

The National Assembly Health and Welfare Committee reported 67,518 patients were prescribed with Peramiflu as of December last year.

 

It was 4.4 times more than 15,481 patients in the season before.

 

In the general flu treatment market including Tamiflu, Peramiflu’s share soared from 2.0 percent to 5.4 percent, about 2.7 times the rate.

 

Some hospitals and clinics struggled to get a hold of Peramiflu stock, because a sudden spike in sales exceeded projected demand,.

 

Apparently, pediatric institutes especially had difficulty in acquiring needed supply.

 

Peramiflu also won expanded indication on pediatric patient under the age of two.

 

And some sees that the word of mouth from young patients’ parents, concerned of the recent Tamiflu risk, have affected the shortage.

 

◆Hanmi Flu gulping up generic market share Since Roche introduced Tamiflu to Korea in 2000, its market share grew significantly in 2009 with the new influenza sweeping the nation.

 

And the treatment dominated the market in the 2014-2015 season.

 

In the 2015-2016, Hanmi Pharmaceutical modified the original’s saline substance to avoid patent infringement and launched Hanmi Flu.

 

The incrementally modified drug generated 1.5 billion won from the first season’s prescription and had a perfect soft landing on to the flu treatment market.

 

The prescription sales also hiked exponentially in the 2016-2017 season at 8.3 billion won.

 

From the 2017-2018 season, Tamiflu’s patent was expired and generics flooded out to the market.

 

About 50 pharmaceutical companies entered the oseltamivir generic market.

 

The generics made a huge success from their first year.

 

31.1 billion won worth of generics were prescribed in their first flu season from 2017 to 2018.

 

Tamiflu and oseltamivir generics’ prescription volume in 2018-2019 season (Source: UBIST)

However, their sales plummeted to 24.7 billion won with the Tamiflu risk in the 2018-2019 season.

 

But the upside was that the market share of generics in the overall flu treatment market surged from 60.9 percent to 68.8 percent.

 

The generic’s share is expected to surpass 70 percent this season.

 

Interestingly, the number one generic Hanmi Flu’s prescription volume has dropped from 8.4 billion won in 2017-2018 season with share of 26.9 percent to 6.0 billion won in 2018-2019 season with 24.3 percent market share.

 

The decrease in Hanmi Flu’s market share was actually shared among other generic items including Fluone (Jeil Pharm), Seltaflu (Inist Bio), Tami-infle (Hutecs), Boryung Tami (Boryung Pharmaceutical), Tamipro (Arlico Pharm), Bisel Flu (Wooridul Pharmaceutical), Dongwha Flu N (Dongwha Pharm) and Tamiforce (Ilsung Pharmaceuticals).

 

All of the said generics had growth in sales and market share.

 

Meanwhile, Roche Korea is aiming for a turnaround with a new launch of Xofluza.

 

However, the company would be unlikely to recover the fall this season as the new flu treatment launch would take a place in March next year at earliest.