Will the premium vaccine market rebound?

with the nearing end of COVID-19 and the introduction of new vaccine products

New shingles vaccine to be released into the Korean market at the end of the year

If shingles vaccines are accepted into NIP, the total market will expand

Expectations rise for the normalization of the market that had been contracted by COVID-19

Whether the premium vaccine market, which consists of vaccines used to prevent diseases like shingles, pneumococcal vaccines, etc., will be able to overcome the COVID-19 crisis and make a rebound is gaining attention.

 

Expectations of market recovery are rising in the pharma and bio-industry with the eased resurgence of COVID-19, cautious expectations on the nearing end of the COVID-19 pandemic, and potential new product releases being in the two vaccine areas.

 

◆Shingrix expected to be released at the end of the year...Will the contracted market rebound after COVID-19 According to industry sources on the 8th, GSK and GC Pharma plan to jointly promote the sales of the new shingles vaccine, Shingrix.

 

Shingrix is a vaccine that prevents shingles in immunocompetent adults 50 years and older, and adults 18 years and older who are or will be immunocompromised.

 

GSK received approval for the drug from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in September last year.

 

Although the company had originally planned to release the drug in February this year, the schedule was delayed.

 

Currently, two products - MSD's ‘Zostavax’ and SK Bioscience's ‘SKYZoster’ – are competing in the domestic shingles vaccine market.

 

MSD

The market had greatly contracted with the prolonged COVID-19 crisis.

 

The continued prioritization of COVID-19 vaccines resulted in a relative neglect of other vaccine products.

 

According to the medical research institution IQVIA, the domestic shingles vaccine market, was KRW 89.9 billion in 2019, a 3% increase from that in 2018.

 

However, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis, the market size shrunk for two consecutive years to KRW 72.3 billion in 2020 and KRW 45.1 billion in 2021.

 

Compared to 2019, right before the COVID-19 crisis, the market shrunk to nearly half in two years.

 

◆Applying NIP to shingles vaccine under review...

 

expectations rise for market expansion The pharmaceutical industry predicts that the market will normalize after next year after the COVID-19 crisis starts settling down.

 

In particular, as the Suk-Yeol Yoon administration is reviewing including the shingles vaccine in the National Immunization Program (NIP), some are projecting that the market will further expand, even to a greater extent than before the COVID-19 crisis.

 

During the elections, President Suk-Yeol Yoon who had been a candidate then had pledged to apply NIP to shingles vaccines.

 

Quarterly sales of shingles vaccines in Korea(Unit: KRW 0.1 billion, IQVIA)

The key point of the issue is how much influence the third shingles vaccine will exert in the market.

 

By vaccine effect, Shingrix has a higher prevention rate than the existing two products.

 

The prevention effect of Shingrix, which is indicated for adults aged 50 years and older were found to be 97% at 3.2 years after vaccination in the ZOE-50 clinical trial.

 

Its competitor, Zostavax has shown a 51% preventive effect in adults aged 50 years or older and a 41% effect in adults aged 70 years or older.

 

SKYZoster has demonstrated non-inferiority to Zostavax in a clinical trial.

 

By prevention rate, the vaccine has no significant difference from Zostavax.

 

However, its price is expected to be higher than that of existing vaccines due to its excellent preventive effect.

 

Currently, the price of Zostavax is in the middle KRW 100,000 range, and SKYZoster is in the lower KRW 100,000 range.

 

If the price tag of Shingrix is set too high, it may not enjoy a performance up to expectations in the market.

 

At the same time, this will also act as a barrier to its entry into NIP.

 

How well the two existing products will maintain their share of the market also remains to be seen.

 

Currently, SKYZoster had been chasing Zostavax’s sales.

 

SKYZoster’s shares in the market had been rising since it was released in Q4 2017.

 

Shares of SKYZoster, which had been 35% in Q1 2018, rose 8%p and 43% in 4 years since Q1 this year.

 

◆MSD·Pfizer to introduce next-generation pneumococcal vaccines in Korea in full-scale New products are also soon to enter the pneumococcal vaccine market as well.

 

Pfizer received marketing authorization for ‘Prevenar 20’ in the US in June last year.

 

Prevenar 20 is an upgraded version of its existing product, ‘Prevenar 13.’ Prevenar 13 prevents 13 serotypes, and Prevenar 20 prevents 20 serotypes.

 

MSD has also developed a next-generation pneumococcal vaccine.

 

MSD received approval for its ‘Vaxneuvance’ from the US FDA in July last year.

 

Vaxneuvance prevents 15 serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

 

Although its scope of prevention is narrower than that of the existing vaccine 'Prodiax23', it has excellent preventive effects in that it is a conjugate vaccine, not a polysaccharide-based vaccine.

 

The industry expects the two vaccines to be introduced to Korea after next year.

 

MSD Korea submitted a market authorization application for Vaxneuvance in March of this year.

 

Pfizer Korea is expected to apply for market authorization for Prevenar 20.

 

An East Asian clinical trial with a total of 1,400 patients including 500 Korean patients are currently underway for Prevenar 20.