Flu drug market enjoys rise for 6 consecutive quarters

in outpatient prescriptions…recovers sales to pre-pandemic level

Outpatient prescriptions for flu treatments totaled KRW 6.8 billion in Q1...up 35% YoY

Flu treatment market had nearly disappeared for 3 years after the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020

Flu spread since September 2022... Prescription market recovered to pre-pandemic levels

The outpatient prescription market for flu drugs has recovered.

 

Their prescription market, which had remained almost nonexistent for 3 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, has expanded significantly since then.

 

With the flu epidemic lasting more than a year, the market for flu treatments has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

 

According to the market research institution UBIST, the outpatient prescription market for influenza (flu) totaled KRW 6.8 billion in Q1, up 34.8% YoY.

 

The prescription market for flu medications has grown more than 160 times in 2 years from just KRW 40 million in Q1 2022.

 

The flu drug market has undergone significant changes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and endemic.

 

After recording KRW 8.2 billion in prescriptions in Q1 2020, the flu treatment market was virtually nonexistent until Q3 2022.

 

Its prescription market was below KRW 100 million for 10 consecutive quarters since Q2 2020.

 

This is due to the significant decline in other infectious disease outbreaks since the COVID-19 pandemic began in earnest, due to increased personal hygiene practices such as handwashing and mask-wearing.

 

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, the number of suspected influenza patients per 1,000 outpatients never exceeded 5 until August 2022, since reaching 6.3 in the first week of March 2020, week 9.

 

That means the flu had not even once spread and become an epidemic for 2 and a half years.

 

The prescription market for flu treatments soared to KRW 10.4 billion in Q4 from just KRW 70 million in Q3 2022.

 

On September 16, 2022, a flu epidemic warning was issued for the first time in 2 years and 6 months and then lasted for 2 years and 7 months until April this year.

 

After the COVID-19 pandemic ended last year, the flu epidemic period has been lengthening due to fully lifted social distancing measures and an increase in outdoor activities.

 

In Q4 last year, the amount of outpatient prescriptions for flu drugs exceeded KRW 20 billion.

 

Number of suspected influenza patients per 1000 outpatients (Unit: people, Source: KDCA)

In April, the number of suspected flu patients per 1,000 outpatients remained steady at around 10.

 

The prescription market for flu medicines in Q1 of this year is similar to the KRW 6.7 billion in Q1 2019 before the pandemic.

 

The prolonged flu pandemic has brought the market back to pre-pandemic levels.

 

Oseltamivir accounts for most of the outpatient prescriptions in the flu treatment market.

 

Oseltamivir is the main active ingredient in Tamiflu.

 

The prescription market for oseltamivir was not able to surpass KRW 100 million until Q3 2022, after reaching KRW 8.2 billion in Q1 2020.

 

However, it rebounded to KRW 10.4 billion in Q4 2022 and has continued to grow since then.

 

In Q1 this year, oseltamivir-based prescriptions amounted to KRW 6.8 billion, up 34.8% year-on-year.